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Storm Prediction Center
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu May 14 07:47:02 UTC 2026
No watches are valid as of Thu May 14 07:47:02 UTC 2026. -
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu May 14 07:47:02 UTC 2026
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 14 07:47:02 UTC 2026. -
SPC May 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are expected from Kansas into western Texas, with isolated overnight activity into parts of the lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will slowly move across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic today, with a surface high moving into the eastern CONUS with offshore flow across the East Coast. Behind this system, shortwave ridging aloft will move toward the MS Valley during the day as a progressive shortwave trough affects the central and northern Plains. This wave will bring rapid cooling aloft across the Dakotas and into the upper MS Valley during the day, with subtle height falls extending into the Central Plains. While the primary surface low will be over Canada, a secondary low is expected to form over western KS by late afternoon, with the surface trough extending fully from the TX Panhandle northward into Manitoba. Southerly winds across the Plains will aid the development of a narrow moist axis from eastern TX into eastern KS and NE during the day, with elevated moisture/warmth developing toward the mid MS Valley overnight with a 40-50 kt low-level jet. ...KS... An isolated supercell or two may develop during the late afternoon just downstream of the low-level lapse rate plume and near the narrow axis of 60s dewpoints near I-35. Surface convergence will not be particularly strong, but forecast soundings indicate a narrow zone of uncapped and unstable air mass. Steep lapse rates aloft, veering winds with height, and 500 mb winds around 30 kt will conditionally favor slow-moving supercells producing large hail. If moisture quality verifies near the upper end of the guidance, hail over 2.00" diameter may occur. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating will lead to deep inverted-v profiles across western TX including the Panhandles. Relatively cool temperature aloft as well as convergence within the surface trough will favor scattered high based thunderstorms, with threat of dry microbursts over a relatively large zone from the South Plains into southwest KS. ...Lower MS/Mid MS Valleys... During the evening and overnight, lift associated with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet will bring elevated instability eastward out of KS and into MO, southern IA an western IL as minimal height falls occur. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated MUCAPE with steep mid/upper lapse rates, thought shear in the cloud-bearing layer will be marginal. This should support elevated storms over much of northern MO, southern IA and western IL overnight with activity spreading southeast. Isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled out given the generally dry sub-cloud layer as storms amass. ..Jewell.. 05/14/2026
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SPC May 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens. By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period, as a secondary shortwave approaches. Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening. However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason, isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and hail as the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
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SPC May 14, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be possible. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S. on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where severe storm development will be possible. By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at 00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. During the evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective cluster will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with storms moving eastward across the region during the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat with damaging wind gusts and hail possible. ..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
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