Convective Outlooks

• SPC May 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

  SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
  

  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  1206 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
  
  Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
  
  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
  
  ...SUMMARY...
  Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are expected from
  Kansas into western Texas, with isolated overnight activity into
  parts of the lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley.
  
  ...Synopsis...
  An upper trough will slowly move across the Northeast and Mid
  Atlantic today, with a surface high moving into the eastern CONUS
  with offshore flow across the East Coast. Behind this system,
  shortwave ridging aloft will move toward the MS Valley during the
  day as a progressive shortwave trough affects the central and
  northern Plains. This wave will bring rapid cooling aloft across the
  Dakotas and into the upper MS Valley during the day, with subtle
  height falls extending into the Central Plains. 
  
  While the primary surface low will be over Canada, a secondary low
  is expected to form over western KS by late afternoon, with the
  surface trough extending fully from the TX Panhandle northward into
  Manitoba. Southerly winds across the Plains will aid the development
  of a narrow moist axis from eastern TX into eastern KS and NE during
  the day, with elevated moisture/warmth developing toward the mid MS
  Valley overnight with a 40-50 kt low-level jet.
  
  ...KS...
  An isolated supercell or two may develop during the late afternoon
  just downstream of the low-level lapse rate plume and near the
  narrow axis of 60s dewpoints near I-35. Surface convergence will not
  be particularly strong, but forecast soundings indicate a narrow
  zone of uncapped and unstable air mass. Steep lapse rates aloft,
  veering winds with height, and 500 mb winds around 30 kt will
  conditionally favor slow-moving supercells producing large hail. If
  moisture quality verifies near the upper end of the guidance, hail
  over 2.00" diameter may occur.
  
  ...Southern High Plains...
  Strong heating will lead to deep inverted-v profiles across western
  TX including the Panhandles. Relatively cool temperature aloft as
  well as convergence within the surface trough will favor scattered
  high based thunderstorms, with threat of dry microbursts over a
  relatively large zone from the South Plains into southwest KS.
  
  ...Lower MS/Mid MS Valleys...
  During the evening and overnight, lift associated with a 50+ kt
  southwesterly low-level jet will bring elevated instability eastward
  out of KS and into MO, southern IA an western IL as minimal height
  falls occur. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated MUCAPE
  with steep mid/upper lapse rates, thought shear in the cloud-bearing
  layer will be marginal. This should support elevated storms over
  much of northern MO, southern IA and western IL overnight with
  activity spreading southeast. Isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled
  out given the generally dry sub-cloud layer as storms amass.
  
  ..Jewell.. 05/14/2026
  
  

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• SPC May 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

  SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
  

  Day 2 Convective Outlook  
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
  
  Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
  
  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
  THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
  
  ...SUMMARY...
  Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
  will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
  central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
  
  ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
  West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on
  Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
  into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection
  will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the
  eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri
  Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an
  inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and
  northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective
  initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough
  during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually
  increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens.
  
  By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to
  strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z
  in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
  shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in
  the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
  supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in
  diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells
  will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening
  and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the
  central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe
  storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period,
  as a secondary shortwave approaches.
  
  Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is
  forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening.
  However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models
  showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate
  deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the
  cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible.
  
  ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
  Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper
  Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although
  instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may
  initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the
  southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase
  into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over
  much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason,
  isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and
  hail as the primary threats.
  
  ..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
  
  

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• SPC May 14, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

  SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
  

  Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  0245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
  
  Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
  
  ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
  THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
  
  CORRECTED FOR WORDING
  
  ...SUMMARY...
  Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
  tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
  parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
  Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
  possible.
  
  ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
  An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
  on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
  central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
  High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
  and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
  trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
  afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
  in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
  storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
  the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
  severe storm development will be possible.
  
  By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
  forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
  Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
  soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
  00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
  around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
  environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
  large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
  hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
  knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
  into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
  0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
  across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
  this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
  there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
  magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
  tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
  the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
  wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. During the
  evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective cluster
  will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into the lower
  to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind gusts will
  be possible.
  
  ...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
  West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
  Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
  shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
  Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
  advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
  into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
  afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
  storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
  Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
  steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
  with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.
  
  ..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
  
  

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