Blue Flower

Outlook (Main)

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Forecast Products
  1. No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 7 12:26:02 UTC 2022.
  2. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 7 12:26:02 UTC 2022.
  3. SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0714 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022
    
    Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
    
    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
    
    ...Discussion...
    A quiescent pattern for severe thunderstorms will persist today. Two
    features of interest for general thunder will be associated with a
    shortwave trough moving east across southern Quebec and a cutoff low
    meandering over northwest Sonora. 
    
    Owing to the presence of mainly upper 40s to low 50s boundary-layer
    dew points ahead of a cold front pushing east across northern New
    England and modest mid-level lapse rates, meager buoyancy with
    MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg is expected. Here, low-topped convection
    should develop in a broken band along the cold front during the late
    afternoon before diminishing after sunset. 
    
    The warmest surface temperatures and more deeply mixed boundary
    layer near the Sonora low will be across southern AZ. Weak
    deep-layer shear will curtail an organized severe threat, but a few
    pulse storms might produce locally strong gusts and small hail from
    mid-afternoon to early evening.
    
    ..Grams/Kerr.. 10/07/2022
    
    
    Read more
  4. Day 4-8 Outlook
    Day 4-8 Outlook Image
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0330 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022
    
    Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Monday Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
    An upper-level troughing pattern will likely develop across the
    central U.S. from Monday into Tuesday. The upper-level trough is
    forecast to move slowly eastward to near the Mississippi Valley by
    Wednesday. Modest moisture return should take place on Tuesday ahead
    of a cold front moving southeastward through the central U.S.
    Surface dewpoints could reach the 50s F ahead of much of the front
    by Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop along and ahead of
    the front could have enough instability for an isolated severe
    threat. The area with the greatest severe potential should shift
    eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday. The
    current thinking is that any severe threat will remain marginal in
    most areas on Tuesday and Wednesday.
    
    ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
    The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
    Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Thunderstorm development will be
    possible along and ahead of a cold front during the day. A severe
    threat could develop Thursday afternoon in parts of the Ohio and
    Tennessee Valleys eastward into the southern and central
    Appalachians. Any severe threat will remain isolated in most areas.
    On Friday, the front is forecast to move eastward to the Atlantic
    Coast by midday. Thunderstorms could occur in parts of New England.
    Although instability should be weak that far north, an isolated
    severe threat will be possible during the day.
    
    
    Read more