Blue Flower

Outlook (Main)

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Forecast Products
  1. No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 1 11:22:02 UTC 2021.
    MD 1410 Image
    Mesoscale Discussion 1410
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0529 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021
    Areas affected...portions of south-central VA and north-central NC
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 
    Valid 011029Z - 011200Z
    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
    SUMMARY...Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible with
    stronger thunderstorms this morning. A watch is not expected at this
    DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing this morning in the vicinity
    of a surface trough along the NC/VA Piedmont. Instability remains
    modest across the region given poor midlevel lapse rates and time of
    day. Furthermore, boundary-layer inhibition is likely resulting in
    elevated convection. Nevertheless, effective-shear magnitudes around
    30-40 kt have resulted in some semi-organized storm structures.
    Vertically veering wind profiles and elongated hodographs suggests
    some potential for briefly organized cells, but a lack of stronger
    instability/lapse rates will limit overall severe potential over the
    next few hours, with possibly some small hail and/or gusty winds
    accompany the strongest cells.
    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 08/01/2021
    ...Please see for graphic product...
    LAT...LON   36198018 36967947 37297909 37397875 37457792 37207765
                36637786 35977836 35757866 35657943 35687996 35798031
                35938047 36198018 
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  3. Day 4-8 Outlook
    Day 4-8 Outlook Image
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0327 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021
    Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
    For the Wed/D4 to Fri/D6 period, a front will remain along the Gulf
    and Mid Atlantic Coasts with an upper trough slowly moving from the
    OH Valley into the Northeast. Numerous showers and storms will occur
    near this boundary, though mainly offshore.
    During this time frame, a shortwave trough will move east out of the
    Pacific Northwest, reaching the northern Plains by Sat/D7. Low-level
    moisture and instability may be sufficient for a isolated severe
    storms, primarily from the eastern Dakotas into MN. Shear will not
    be particularly strong with this initial wave, with midlevel winds
    around 35 kt.
    By Sun/D8, a stronger, progressive shortwave trough will move across
    MT and into the western Dakotas, with favorable large-scale lift
    from the Dakotas into MN. Instability will be stronger as well due
    to a return of 70s F dewpoints. Predictability of such a wave is
    inherently low at D8, but a Slight Risk could eventually be issued
    in later outlooks.
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  4. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021
    Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
    The fire weather potential will generally be low for Monday thanks
    to continued rain chances and weak flow at the surface. A few
    regional fire weather concerns may evolve (as outlined below), but
    confidence in these scenarios is too low to warrant risk areas. 
    ...Central Montana...
    A weak surface trough is forecast to shift from the Pacific
    Northwest to the northern Rockies by Monday afternoon. This will
    maintain dry east/southeasterly winds over the state, which should
    result in RH values once again falling into the low 20s and perhaps
    high teens. However, The synoptic pressure gradient is forecast to
    weaken as a surface high over the northern MS River Valley shifts
    east through the day. Consequently, the potential for widespread
    sustained winds near or above 15 mph appears low. Elevated fire
    weather conditions are possible if winds trend stronger than
    currently expected. 
    ...Central Oregon...
    While some mid-level drying is expected through the day Monday,
    forecast soundings suggest sufficient monsoonal moisture will remain
    in place to support modest (around 250-500 MUCAPE) instability.
    Thunderstorm chances will increase through the day as lift from an
    approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. PWAT values
    generally above 0.75 inches and ensemble QPF guidance suggest mainly
    wet thunderstorms are probable, though a dry storm or two is
    possible on the periphery of the exiting moisture. One additional
    mitigating factor is the potential for wetting rainfall over the
    next 24 hours, which may reduce fuel receptiveness by Monday
    afternoon. As such, the dry thunderstorm threat will be conditional
    on 1) sufficient mid-level drying and 2) minimal rainfall today
    (Sunday) over central OR.
    ..Moore.. 08/01/2021
    ...Please see for graphic product...
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