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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307
WW 307 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 240335Z - 241000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far western Iowa Central to eastern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1035 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A forward-propagating cluster will likely develop east-southeast from ongoing cells across north-central Nebraska, spreading into eastern Nebraska and far western Iowa overnight. Intense severe wind gusts are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Broken Bow NE to 20 miles northeast of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 306... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...GramsRead more -
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307 Status Reports
WW 0307 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 307 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LBF TO 10 SSE ONL TO 30 W SLB. ..BROYLES..06/24/21 ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 307 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-129-133-155-193-240640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON MILLS MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE WOODBURY NEC003-011-019-021-023-025-037-039-041-043-053-055-071-077-079- 081-093-109-119-121-125-131-139-141-143-153-155-159-163-167-173- 175-177-179-183-185-240640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BUFFALO BURT BUTLER CASS COLFAX CUMING CUSTER DAKOTA DODGE DOUGLAS GARFIELD GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD LANCASTER MADISON MERRICK NANCE OTOE PIERCE PLATTE POLK SARPY SAUNDERS
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306 Status Reports
WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SNY TO 35 W MHN TO 35 NW MHN TO 40 W VTN. ..LYONS..06/24/21 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-015-017-031-041-049-069-071-075-089-091-101-103-111- 113-115-117-149-171-183-240340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL GARDEN GARFIELD GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC MD 1073
MD 1073 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307... FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Far Northeast Kansas...Northwest Missouri...Southwest Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307... Valid 240636Z - 240830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307 continues. SUMMARY...A potential for wind damage, isolated large hail and a brief tornado will likely continue for several more hours. As the MCS in northeast Nebraska moves southeastward toward the edge of weather watch 307, a new watch will need to be considered. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Omaha shows a well-developed bowing line segment located in northeast Nebraska. A pronounced surface high-low couplet is evident behind the bowing segment. Surface dewpoints ahead of the line are generally in the lower 70s F, which is contributing to strong instability. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of MLCAPE between 4000 and 4500 J/Kg. In addition, the Omaha WSR-88D VWP shows strong directional shear in the low-levels with some speed shear in the mid to upper levels. This wind profile along with a strong rear inflow jet will continue support the bowing line segment as it moves quickly southeastward across eastern Nebraska over the next couple of hours. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge with wind gusts above 70 knots possible. Recently, the BVN observing site reported a wind gust at 73 knots. Large hail and a brief tornado will also be possible with the more intense rotating cells embedded in the line. The line is expected to exit weather watch 307 by 09Z. As it approaches the edge of the watch, a new watch will need to be considered further downstream. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/24/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 41569496 41919625 42079740 41919794 41539859 41219852 40639779 40129703 39559597 39349525 39329462 39849402 40379381 40849411 41569496Read more -
SPC Jun 24, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region of the central Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the upper Midwest on Thursday. The greatest threat including the potential for significant wind damage is forecast over the central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley. ...Central Plains through middle Mississippi Valley... MCS currently over eastern NE continue into northern MO through the morning before weakening, likely posing an ongoing risk for damaging wind. The remnant outflow boundary should extend from central MO northwestward through northeast KS into eastern NE, and this feature will shift northeast during the day. Robust boundary-layer recovery and destabilization will likely occur in the vicinity of and west of this boundary as rich low-level moisture (low 70s F dewpoints) advects northeast along a southwesterly low-level jet. A cold front will likely move slowly southeast and should extend from the upper Midwest southwest through central and southwest NE, then northwest into the central High Plains. South of this feature, easterly low-level winds are expected north of a thermal low that will be situated over western KS. A dryline should extend southward from the thermal low into the southern High Plains. A corridor of richer low-level moisture will likely persist with the easterly low-level flow regime across northern KS into central and eastern NE. A warm elevated mixed layer with 8.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will persist across this region above the moist boundary layer contributing to MLCAPE from 3000-4000 J/kg. Potential areas for thunderstorm initiation include the deeply mixed boundary layer across the central High Plains, along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS and along/north of the outflow boundary across northeast KS into northwest MO and southeast NE. High-based storms that develop over western KS and southwest NE will likely intensify as they spread east and intercept the moist and unstable boundary layer across southern NE into northern KS. Vertical wind profiles with 40+ kt effective bulk shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode, but storms should eventually evolve into an organized MCS with potential for significant wind damage as it continues through the central Plains into the middle MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight. The best threat for a few tornadoes will be along and just to the cool side of the outflow boundary from northeast KS/northwest MO into southeast NE and southwestern IA, where 0-1 km hodographs will be the most supportive of low-level mesocyclones, especially with any discrete supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening. ...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front during the afternoon within an environment characterized by modest instability and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. The stronger storms may produce a few locally strong to severe wind gusts and hail from afternoon into the early evening. ..Dial/Lyons.. 06/24/2021
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