Outlook (Main)
Storm Prediction Center
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 29 10:49:02 UTC 2021
No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 29 10:49:02 UTC 2021. -
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Nov 29 10:49:02 UTC 2021
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 29 10:49:02 UTC 2021. -
SPC Nov 29, 2021 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that several strengthening perturbations will emerge late this week through next weekend, from a strong mid/upper jet initially rounding the crest of broad ridging (across the eastern Pacific through the northern U.S. Great Plains), into broad troughing (east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic). As they dig through the mid-level troughing, it appears that they will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley and parts of northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, it appears that another intrusion of cold/dry air will overspread most areas east of the Rockies by late next weekend. Preceding the cold front, latest guidance is suggestive that a corridor of modest destabilization is possible on Friday, associated with boundary-layer moisture return along a weak surface trough, roughly near/east of the Interstate 35 corridor of south central through north central/northeast Texas. This may coincide with increasing forcing for ascent, associated with a perturbation emerging from persistent weak upper troughing across the subtropical eastern Pacific/northern Mexican Plateau, to support some risk for strong thunderstorm development. Although a mid-level speed maximum might contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection (given sufficient destabilization), low-level wind fields are forecast to remain generally weak, which probably will tend to minimize the severe weather potential.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the western United States is forecast to become suppressed southwestward today as a mid-level shortwave perturbation quickly moves from the Pacific Northwest into the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern Great Basin and Rockies is forecast to weaken through this afternoon before becoming reestablished across the northern Great Basin tonight. ...Southern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated through at least midday today across inland areas of southern California with sustained surface winds near 15-20 mph overlapping widespread critical minimum RH values and receptive fuels. As has been the case the past several days, locally critical conditions are most likely in terrain-favored areas of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, where enhanced surface winds are expected. Surface winds are forecast to diminish rather rapidly during the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes, which should temporarily temper large-scale fire weather concerns. Though, elevated to locally critical conditions may return during the overnight as the pressure gradient strengthens amidst poor overnight RH recoveries. ...Georgia/South Carolina/North Carolina... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across the Southeast as north/northwesterly sustained surface winds near 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with minimum RH values of 25-35% and increasingly receptive fuels. ..Elliott.. 11/29/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to gradually rebuild across the western United States Day 2/Tuesday as an area of surface high pressure over the northern Great Basin strengthens while building southward. ...Southern California... At least locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely to continue into Day 2/Tuesday morning as poor overnight RH recoveries occur in conjunction with strengthening surface winds. Thereafter, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated throughout the day as critical RH values develop amidst sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible overnight Day 2/Tuesday into Day 3/Wednesday as the pressure gradient strengthens and RH recoveries remain poor. Locations most likely to experience critical conditions include the wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles counties where strong/gusty winds are expected by late in the period. At this time, confidence in critical criteria being met prior to Day 3/Wednesday is too low for a Critical upgrade. ...Southeast... The combination of a dry airmass (e.g., near critical minimum RH values), modestly breezy afternoon surface winds (e.g., 10-15 mph), and receptive fuels will likely promote several hours of at least locally elevated fire weather conditions from late morning through the afternoon. ..Elliott.. 11/29/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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