Blue Flower

Outlook (Main)

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Forecast Products
  1. No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 29 10:49:02 UTC 2021.
  2. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 29 10:49:02 UTC 2021.
  3. Day 4-8 Outlook
    Day 4-8 Outlook Image
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021
    
    Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    Medium-range models indicate that several strengthening
    perturbations will emerge late this week through next weekend, from
    a strong mid/upper jet initially rounding the crest of broad ridging
    (across the eastern Pacific through the northern U.S. Great Plains),
    into broad troughing (east of the upper Mississippi Valley through
    the western Atlantic).  As they dig through the mid-level troughing,
    it appears that they will contribute to strengthening surface
    cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley and parts of northern
    New England into the Canadian Maritimes.  In its wake, it appears
    that another intrusion of cold/dry air will overspread most areas
    east of the Rockies by late next weekend.  
    
    Preceding the cold front, latest guidance is suggestive that a
    corridor of modest destabilization is possible on Friday, associated
    with boundary-layer moisture return along a weak surface trough,
    roughly near/east of the Interstate 35 corridor of south central
    through north central/northeast Texas.  This may coincide with
    increasing forcing for ascent, associated with a perturbation
    emerging from persistent weak upper troughing across the subtropical
    eastern Pacific/northern Mexican Plateau, to support some risk for
    strong thunderstorm development.  Although a mid-level speed maximum
    might contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
    convection (given sufficient destabilization), low-level wind fields
    are forecast to remain generally weak, which probably will tend to
    minimize the severe weather potential.
    
    
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  4. SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0129 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021
    
    Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
    
    ...Synopsis...
    Broad mid-level ridging over the western United States is forecast
    to become suppressed southwestward today as a mid-level shortwave
    perturbation quickly moves from the Pacific Northwest into the
    central Plains. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern Great
    Basin and Rockies is forecast to weaken through this afternoon
    before becoming reestablished across the northern Great Basin
    tonight.
    
    ...Southern California...
    Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
    through at least midday today across inland areas of southern
    California with sustained surface winds near 15-20 mph overlapping
    widespread critical minimum RH values and receptive fuels. As has
    been the case the past several days, locally critical conditions are
    most likely in terrain-favored areas of Ventura and Los Angeles
    counties, where enhanced surface winds are expected. Surface winds
    are forecast to diminish rather rapidly during the afternoon as the
    pressure gradient relaxes, which should temporarily temper
    large-scale fire weather concerns. Though, elevated to locally
    critical conditions may return during the overnight as the pressure
    gradient strengthens amidst poor overnight RH recoveries. 
    
    ...Georgia/South Carolina/North Carolina...
    A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected
    this afternoon across the Southeast as north/northwesterly sustained
    surface winds near 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with minimum RH
    values of 25-35% and increasingly receptive fuels.
    
    ..Elliott.. 11/29/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
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  5. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0130 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021
    
    Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
    
    ...Synopsis...
    Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to gradually rebuild across the
    western United States Day 2/Tuesday as an area of surface high
    pressure over the northern Great Basin strengthens while building
    southward. 
    
    ...Southern California...
    At least locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely to
    continue into Day 2/Tuesday morning as poor overnight RH recoveries
    occur in conjunction with strengthening surface winds. Thereafter,
    elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
    throughout the day as critical RH values develop amidst sustained
    surface winds of 15-20 mph. Near critical fire weather conditions
    are possible overnight Day 2/Tuesday into Day 3/Wednesday as the
    pressure gradient strengthens and RH recoveries remain poor.
    Locations most likely to experience critical conditions include the
    wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles counties where
    strong/gusty winds are expected by late in the period. At this time,
    confidence in critical criteria being met prior to Day 3/Wednesday
    is too low for a Critical upgrade. 
    
    ...Southeast...
    The combination of a dry airmass (e.g., near critical minimum RH
    values), modestly breezy afternoon surface winds (e.g., 10-15 mph),
    and receptive fuels will likely promote several hours of at least
    locally elevated fire weather conditions from late morning through
    the afternoon.
    
    ..Elliott.. 11/29/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
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