Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 1 11:22:02 UTC 2021.
MD 1410 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Areas affected...portions of south-central VA and north-central NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011029Z - 011200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible with stronger thunderstorms this morning. A watch is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing this morning in the vicinity of a surface trough along the NC/VA Piedmont. Instability remains modest across the region given poor midlevel lapse rates and time of day. Furthermore, boundary-layer inhibition is likely resulting in elevated convection. Nevertheless, effective-shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt have resulted in some semi-organized storm structures. Vertically veering wind profiles and elongated hodographs suggests some potential for briefly organized cells, but a lack of stronger instability/lapse rates will limit overall severe potential over the next few hours, with possibly some small hail and/or gusty winds accompany the strongest cells. ..Leitman/Edwards.. 08/01/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 36198018 36967947 37297909 37397875 37457792 37207765 36637786 35977836 35757866 35657943 35687996 35798031 35938047 36198018Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the Wed/D4 to Fri/D6 period, a front will remain along the Gulf and Mid Atlantic Coasts with an upper trough slowly moving from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Numerous showers and storms will occur near this boundary, though mainly offshore. During this time frame, a shortwave trough will move east out of the Pacific Northwest, reaching the northern Plains by Sat/D7. Low-level moisture and instability may be sufficient for a isolated severe storms, primarily from the eastern Dakotas into MN. Shear will not be particularly strong with this initial wave, with midlevel winds around 35 kt. By Sun/D8, a stronger, progressive shortwave trough will move across MT and into the western Dakotas, with favorable large-scale lift from the Dakotas into MN. Instability will be stronger as well due to a return of 70s F dewpoints. Predictability of such a wave is inherently low at D8, but a Slight Risk could eventually be issued in later outlooks.Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The fire weather potential will generally be low for Monday thanks to continued rain chances and weak flow at the surface. A few regional fire weather concerns may evolve (as outlined below), but confidence in these scenarios is too low to warrant risk areas. ...Central Montana... A weak surface trough is forecast to shift from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies by Monday afternoon. This will maintain dry east/southeasterly winds over the state, which should result in RH values once again falling into the low 20s and perhaps high teens. However, The synoptic pressure gradient is forecast to weaken as a surface high over the northern MS River Valley shifts east through the day. Consequently, the potential for widespread sustained winds near or above 15 mph appears low. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible if winds trend stronger than currently expected. ...Central Oregon... While some mid-level drying is expected through the day Monday, forecast soundings suggest sufficient monsoonal moisture will remain in place to support modest (around 250-500 MUCAPE) instability. Thunderstorm chances will increase through the day as lift from an approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. PWAT values generally above 0.75 inches and ensemble QPF guidance suggest mainly wet thunderstorms are probable, though a dry storm or two is possible on the periphery of the exiting moisture. One additional mitigating factor is the potential for wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, which may reduce fuel receptiveness by Monday afternoon. As such, the dry thunderstorm threat will be conditional on 1) sufficient mid-level drying and 2) minimal rainfall today (Sunday) over central OR. ..Moore.. 08/01/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more