Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 7 12:26:02 UTC 2022.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 7 12:26:02 UTC 2022.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe thunderstorms will persist today. Two features of interest for general thunder will be associated with a shortwave trough moving east across southern Quebec and a cutoff low meandering over northwest Sonora. Owing to the presence of mainly upper 40s to low 50s boundary-layer dew points ahead of a cold front pushing east across northern New England and modest mid-level lapse rates, meager buoyancy with MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg is expected. Here, low-topped convection should develop in a broken band along the cold front during the late afternoon before diminishing after sunset. The warmest surface temperatures and more deeply mixed boundary layer near the Sonora low will be across southern AZ. Weak deep-layer shear will curtail an organized severe threat, but a few pulse storms might produce locally strong gusts and small hail from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Kerr.. 10/07/2022Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level troughing pattern will likely develop across the central U.S. from Monday into Tuesday. The upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward to near the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. Modest moisture return should take place on Tuesday ahead of a cold front moving southeastward through the central U.S. Surface dewpoints could reach the 50s F ahead of much of the front by Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop along and ahead of the front could have enough instability for an isolated severe threat. The area with the greatest severe potential should shift eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday. The current thinking is that any severe threat will remain marginal in most areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and ahead of a cold front during the day. A severe threat could develop Thursday afternoon in parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Any severe threat will remain isolated in most areas. On Friday, the front is forecast to move eastward to the Atlantic Coast by midday. Thunderstorms could occur in parts of New England. Although instability should be weak that far north, an isolated severe threat will be possible during the day.Read more