Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 3 22:04:02 UTC 2023.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 3 22:04:02 UTC 2023.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Fri Feb 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm area has been trimmed with this outlook update, to account for the southward progression of convection along the outflow-reinforced cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms earlier produced 40-50 mph gusts in the Melbourne vicinity, though the stronger storms have subsequently weakened or moved offshore. Any remaining thunderstorm activity across the southern FL Peninsula is expected to be generally weak and isolated, as low-level flow continues to veer and weaken ahead of the southward-moving front. ..Dean.. 02/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0943 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023/ ...Central/south FL... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing along and just ahead of a cold front pushing south into central FL. 12Z observed and forecast mid-level lapse rates are weak. With only modest boundary-layer heating, limited instability will mitigate robust updrafts. Veered low-level winds ahead of the front will curtail hodograph curvature. However, the southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerlies attendant to the low-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough over the Southeast will maintain 40-50 kt effective shear. Locally gusty winds and small hail are possible in the deepest storms through sunset, before onset of nocturnal cooling and weakening low-level convergence yield diminishing convection this evening in south FL.Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across northeastern New Mexico and the western Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. However, only marginally dry fuels preclude adding an Elevated risk area. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 02/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel ridging will weaken over the southern Rockies, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads the area. In response, a weak lee surface low will develop over southeastern CO, promoting 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds from northeastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds, coupled with 20 percent minimum RH could support locally elevated conditions during the afternoon. However, given marginally receptive fuels through this corridor, Elevated highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Fri Feb 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is largely on track. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to push a weak cold front through northeastern New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Saturday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected ahead of the front, while the lowest RH is expected behind the front, and this displacement precludes outlining any Elevated areas on this outlook. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 02/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward from the central/southern Plains into the middle MS Valley. In its wake, broad/enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies -- favoring continued lee troughing and breezy surface winds over the southern Plains. While locally elevated conditions are possible over northeastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, the stronger surface winds should be displaced east of the more substantial RH reductions -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more