Outlook (Main)

1. SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 25 14:53:02 UTC 2021

   No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 25 14:53:02 UTC 2021.

2. SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Oct 25 14:53:02 UTC 2021

   No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 25 14:53:02 UTC 2021.

3. SPC Oct 25, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

   SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
   

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0749 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021
   
   Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and possibly a tornado risk
   are expected from the southern and central Appalachians into the
   Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region, mainly this afternoon and
   evening.
   
   ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas...
   The remnants of last evening's severe storms across the
   Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley grew upscale and persist early this
   morning in a diminished intensity from Ohio south-southwestward into
   eastern portions of Kentucky and middle/eastern Tennessee, parallel
   to but ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.
   
   The parent shortwave trough will continue eastward over the
   Midwest/Ohio Valley toward the central/northern Appalachians through
   tonight, with height falls and the exit region of a strong mid/upper
   jet overspreading the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia.
   The aforementioned bands of convection and related cloud cover will
   tend to hinder pre-frontal destabilization across the Upper Ohio
   Valley and windward side of the Appalachians, but a few
   strong/severe low-topped storms could occur pending weak but
   sufficient destabilization this afternoon in those areas.
   
   A more certain/probable severe-weather risk is expected this
   afternoon east of the Appalachians spine, perhaps initially
   near/just east of the Blue Ridge across Virginia and nearby
   Maryland/North Carolina. This is where cloud breaks ahead of the
   upstream cold front and lingering overnight convection should allow
   for modest destabilization, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
   possible from the North Carolina/Virginia Blue Ridge and Piedmont
   vicinities toward the Delmarva by late afternoon. Strong deep-layer
   shear will support some well-organized storms including linear bands
   aside from the possibility of some initial/embedded supercells,
   particularly across the Piedmont of Virginia and northern North
   Carolina.
   
   Although low-level shear will not be overly strong and details of
   convective mode are a bit uncertain, the potential for a tornado or
   two could somewhat increase late this afternoon/early evening. This
   would particularly be across southern Virginia/northern North
   Carolina pending weak lee-side low/trough development and a related
   increase in low-level shear/SRH. Damaging winds will otherwise be
   the most probable hazard across the region this afternoon and
   evening, with a few instances of marginally severe hail also a
   possibility.
   
   ...Florida...
   A couple of stronger storms may persist toward and across the
   central/southern Florida Peninsula and Keys vicinity today. However,
   the potential for severe-caliber storms should be limited by
   relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, weak vertical shear, and
   weakening low-level convergence.
   
   ..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/25/2021
   
   

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