Blue Flower

Outlook (Main)

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Forecast Products
  1. No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 25 14:53:02 UTC 2021.
  2. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 25 14:53:02 UTC 2021.
  3. SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0749 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021
    
    Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
    CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and possibly a tornado risk
    are expected from the southern and central Appalachians into the
    Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region, mainly this afternoon and
    evening.
    
    ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas...
    The remnants of last evening's severe storms across the
    Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley grew upscale and persist early this
    morning in a diminished intensity from Ohio south-southwestward into
    eastern portions of Kentucky and middle/eastern Tennessee, parallel
    to but ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.
    
    The parent shortwave trough will continue eastward over the
    Midwest/Ohio Valley toward the central/northern Appalachians through
    tonight, with height falls and the exit region of a strong mid/upper
    jet overspreading the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia.
    The aforementioned bands of convection and related cloud cover will
    tend to hinder pre-frontal destabilization across the Upper Ohio
    Valley and windward side of the Appalachians, but a few
    strong/severe low-topped storms could occur pending weak but
    sufficient destabilization this afternoon in those areas.
    
    A more certain/probable severe-weather risk is expected this
    afternoon east of the Appalachians spine, perhaps initially
    near/just east of the Blue Ridge across Virginia and nearby
    Maryland/North Carolina. This is where cloud breaks ahead of the
    upstream cold front and lingering overnight convection should allow
    for modest destabilization, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
    possible from the North Carolina/Virginia Blue Ridge and Piedmont
    vicinities toward the Delmarva by late afternoon. Strong deep-layer
    shear will support some well-organized storms including linear bands
    aside from the possibility of some initial/embedded supercells,
    particularly across the Piedmont of Virginia and northern North
    Carolina.
    
    Although low-level shear will not be overly strong and details of
    convective mode are a bit uncertain, the potential for a tornado or
    two could somewhat increase late this afternoon/early evening. This
    would particularly be across southern Virginia/northern North
    Carolina pending weak lee-side low/trough development and a related
    increase in low-level shear/SRH. Damaging winds will otherwise be
    the most probable hazard across the region this afternoon and
    evening, with a few instances of marginally severe hail also a
    possibility.
    
    ...Florida...
    A couple of stronger storms may persist toward and across the
    central/southern Florida Peninsula and Keys vicinity today. However,
    the potential for severe-caliber storms should be limited by
    relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, weak vertical shear, and
    weakening low-level convergence.
    
    ..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/25/2021
    
    
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