Blue Flower

Outlook (Main)

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Forecast Products
  1. No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 3 22:04:02 UTC 2023.
  2. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 3 22:04:02 UTC 2023.
  3. SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0142 PM CST Fri Feb 03 2023
    
    Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
    
    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
    
    ...20Z Update...
    The general thunderstorm area has been trimmed with this outlook
    update, to account for the southward progression of convection along
    the outflow-reinforced cold front moving across the FL Peninsula.
    Thunderstorms earlier produced 40-50 mph gusts in the Melbourne
    vicinity, though the stronger storms have subsequently weakened or
    moved offshore. Any remaining thunderstorm activity across the
    southern FL Peninsula is expected to be generally weak and isolated,
    as low-level flow continues to veer and weaken ahead of the
    southward-moving front.
    
    ..Dean.. 02/03/2023
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0943 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023/
    
    ...Central/south FL...
    Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing along and
    just ahead of a cold front pushing south into central FL. 12Z
    observed and forecast mid-level lapse rates are weak. With only
    modest boundary-layer heating, limited instability will mitigate
    robust updrafts. Veered low-level winds ahead of the front will
    curtail hodograph curvature. However, the southern periphery of
    stronger mid-level westerlies attendant to the low-amplitude,
    positive-tilt shortwave trough over the Southeast will maintain
    40-50 kt effective shear. Locally gusty winds and small hail are
    possible in the deepest storms through sunset, before onset of
    nocturnal cooling and weakening low-level convergence yield
    diminishing convection this evening in south FL.
    
    
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  4. SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0109 PM CST Fri Feb 03 2023
    
    Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
    
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    
    The previous forecast is on track. Locally elevated fire weather
    conditions are expected this afternoon across northeastern New
    Mexico and the western Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. However, only
    marginally dry fuels preclude adding an Elevated risk area. See the
    previous discussion for more details.
    
    ..Supinie.. 02/03/2023
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023/
    
    ...Synopsis...
    Midlevel ridging will weaken over the southern Rockies, as a
    low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads the area. In response, a
    weak lee surface low will develop over southeastern CO, promoting
    15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds from northeastern NM
    into the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds, coupled with 20 percent
    minimum RH could support locally elevated conditions during the
    afternoon. However, given marginally receptive fuels through this
    corridor, Elevated highlights have been withheld.
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
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  5. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0104 PM CST Fri Feb 03 2023
    
    Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
    
    ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
    
    The previous forecast is largely on track. A low-amplitude shortwave
    trough is expected to push a weak cold front through northeastern
    New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Saturday afternoon.
    The strongest winds are expected ahead of the front, while the
    lowest RH is expected behind the front, and this displacement
    precludes outlining any Elevated areas on this outlook. See the
    previous discussion for more details.
    
    ..Supinie.. 02/03/2023
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023/
    
    ...Synopsis...
    A low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward from the
    central/southern Plains into the middle MS Valley. In its wake,
    broad/enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will persist across
    the central/southern Rockies -- favoring continued lee troughing and
    breezy surface winds over the southern Plains. While locally
    elevated conditions are possible over northeastern NM into the TX/OK
    Panhandles, the stronger surface winds should be displaced east of
    the more substantial RH reductions -- precluding Elevated highlights
    at this time.
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
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