Blue Flower

Outlook (Main)

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Forecast Products
  1. No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 13 11:46:01 UTC 2022.
  2. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 13 11:46:01 UTC 2022.
  3. SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
    Day 3 Outlook Image
    Day 3 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022
    
    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Monday across
    parts of eastern Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
    
    ...Eastern Georgia into the Carolinas and Southern Virginia...
    A large-scale upper trough should remain over much of the eastern
    CONUS and Canada on Monday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level
    northwesterly winds is forecast to persist from parts of the OH/TN
    Valleys into the Southeast. At the surface, low-level moisture
    should gradually increase ahead of a front that should move
    east-southeastward across the central Appalachians into the
    Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic. Weak to moderate instability
    should develop ahead of this boundary by Monday afternoon as diurnal
    heating occurs. Low-level lapse rates are also forecast to steepen,
    especially ahead of convection that may be ongoing Monday morning.
    Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized updrafts, and
    most guidance shows the potential for one or more clusters of
    surface-based thunderstorms to develop along/ahead of the front and
    spread east-southeastward through Monday evening. A Marginal Risk
    has been included where the best signal for robust convection exists
    Monday afternoon, from parts of eastern GA into the Carolinas and
    southern VA.
    
    ...Central Plains...
    A surface low should be present over KS into southern NE on Monday,
    with rich low-level moisture extending in a narrow corridor from the
    Southeast into the Ozarks and central Plains. An upper ridge will
    likely remain prominent over much of the western CONUS into the
    southern Plains, with nebulous large-scale forcing aloft over the
    central Plains. Even so, a ribbon of moderate instability may
    develop across parts of NE/KS by late Monday afternoon along the
    axis of greater low-level moisture. A large degree of uncertainty
    remains regarding potential for surface-based thunderstorm
    development. But, if any convection can develop across the narrow
    warm sector, it would have the potential to become severe given the
    favorable instability and sufficient deep-layer shear forecast. Have
    opted to not include low severe probabilities for now, as the severe
    threat appears rather conditional on thunderstorms developing.
    
    ..Gleason.. 08/13/2022
    
    
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  4. Day 4-8 Outlook
    Day 4-8 Outlook Image
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022
    
    Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
    
    ...DISCUSSION...
    Little change to the upper pattern should occur through at least the
    middle of next week, with a large-scale upper ridge remaining over
    much of the western/central CONUS, and an upper trough over the
    eastern states. Organized severe thunderstorm potential also appears
    relatively low, as modest mid-level winds should generally limit
    deep-layer shear. From Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, the
    best potential for occasionally strong convection should focus along
    and south of a front that is forecast to slowly sag southward across
    parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast.
    Modest mid-level northwesterly winds may exist between the upper
    ridge and trough across portions of these regions. Still, deep-layer
    shear appears too weak to support more than an isolated threat for
    marginally severe thunderstorms each afternoon.
    
    The potential for the upper ridge to be suppressed by a weak
    mid-level perturbation from Day 7/Friday into next weekend remains
    unclear. If this evolution occurs and an upper trough can develop
    across parts of the north-central states towards the Great Lakes
    vicinity, then some severe risk may ultimately develop across parts
    of the central/eastern CONUS in this time frame. However, organized
    severe thunderstorm chances still appear rather low, as a fair
    amount of uncertainty remains regarding the possible upper ridge
    breakdown.
    
    
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