Severe Weather outlook
Storm Prediction Center
-
SPC Apr 3, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA... CORRECTED FOR CORRECTED CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells. A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push northward toward Lower Michigan. ... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa... As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front. Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline. However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm mode evolution. If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode, uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent forecasts. ... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan ... Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone. ... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest Texas... Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear segments. ... Southwest Texas... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk. ..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026
Read more -
SPC Apr 3, 2026 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. Instability will increase along the moist axis during the day, with SBCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm development will take place ahead of the front in the afternoon as low-level convergence gradually becomes focused. A line of strong to severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward across the Ohio Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. Additional strong to severe storms will be possible in the central Appalachians during the late afternoon. A gradual increase in deep-layer shear is expected across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon, as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. In central Ohio, forecast soundings increase 0-6 km shear from 25 knots at midday into the 35 to 40 knot range by late afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase to around 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable for organized multicell line segments with severe wind gusts. The greatest wind-damage threat is forecast from Ohio southwestward into far northern Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening, as the right rear quadrant of the mid-level jet passes through. This will help strengthen large-scale ascent. Further east into the central Appalachians, large-scale ascent will be weaker, but a conditional threat for severe storms will exist as low-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. A marginal severe threat may also develop southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley, where instability and shear will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern extent of an upper-level trough will move eastward across southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex and Texas Coastal Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. A large complex of storms will move east-southeastward toward the western Gulf Coast during the late afternoon and early evening. Over much of the moist sector, SBCAPE is forecast in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear of 25 to 30 knots. This should be enough for isolated severe wind gusts. Hail could also occur. ..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
Read more -
SPC Apr 3, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Sunday from eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland. ...Eastern North Carolina/Far Southeast Virginia/Far Southern Maryland... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward through the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. Weak instability will develop ahead of the front during the day, with thunderstorms forming and moving eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A marginal severe threat may develop across parts of eastern North Carolina, far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland, where deep-layer shear may be strong enough for multicells with isolated severe gusts. The threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will be steepest. ..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
Read more -
SPC Apr 3, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation. ...Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8... A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this time.
Read more