Fire Outlook
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Storm Prediction Center
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Subtle expansions were made to the northeast corners of both the Critical and Elevated areas. This was done in agreement with the latest forecast guidance allowing for drier surface conditions to advect slightly farther north and east ahead of the approaching cold front. As of late morning, surface observations are already showing sustained southwest winds of 15-25 mph with RHs dropping below 30%. The frontal boundary, and associated change in wind direction from south-southwest to northeast, is currently forecast to move south through west-central Kansas and into the drawn areas around 8pm this evening. Almost all of the highlighted area is expected to drop below elevated criteria before the front becomes nearly stationary near the Colorado/Oklahoma border late tonight. ..Stearns.. 04/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen today ahead of an incoming mid-level trough shifting into the Pacific Northwest and as a second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Concurrently, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front progressing slowly southward across the central Great Plains and Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Surface high pressure across the southern Great Plains in tandem with a surface low forecast to strengthen over eastern Colorado will promote a tightened pressure gradient across portions of the central/southern High Plains today. Sustained south-southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for several hours this afternoon. With dry conditions across the region on Sunday helping to further pre-condition already receptive fuels, this combination of wind/RH is expected to support Critical fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma Panhandle, northern Texas Panhandle, northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, sustained 15-20 mph surface winds overlapping low RH of 15-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains. Latest guidance consensus continues to suggest that the aforementioned, slow-moving cold front will approach the northern portions of the drawn area after sunset before becoming largely stationary. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to east-northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. The progression of this front will be closely monitored with future outlook issuances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA... A small Critical area was added over south-central Georgia where afternoon northeasterly winds will approach 15-20 mph combined with RHs of 20-30%. These weather conditions will also exist farther to the south and west as well. However, recent accumulating rainfall and anticipated additional precipitation over this area today/tonight will preclude any extension in that direction with this forecast issuance. This region will continue to be monitored for necessary adjustments as the evolution of preceding precipitation affects fuels receptivity. Over eastern Wyoming, brief marginally elevated wind/RH remain in the forecast. Given the recent snow cover and questionable fuel receptivity, the overall fire environment is not expected to result in any highlights over the central High Plains on Day 2/Tuesday. ..Stearns.. 04/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will continue to dampen on Day 2/Tuesday as an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest moves eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward over the southern Great Plains. This will favor largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South Florida, with high pressure in place across the Midwest. A surface low will simultaneously shift eastward along the Canada/Montana border. ...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle... Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southern periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region are forecast to overlap reduced RH values of 25-35% (locally lower) during peak mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across a region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought and little to no precipitation accumulation over the past 24-48 hours, this is expected to promote a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions from eastern Georgia southwestward into the central Florida Panhandle, including the Apalachicola National Forest. Additional light rainfall is possible tonight/tomorrow across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula into the eastern Panhandle (in the vicinity of the southern portions of the drawn area), and this will be monitored for future outlook issuances. ...Portions of the central High Plains... The aforementioned zonal flow across portions of the central/northern Rockies is expected to promote dry, downslope flow across portions of the central/northern High Plains. Latest guidance indicates that sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph may briefly overlap reduced RH of 15-20% Tuesday afternoon across portions of eastern Wyoming. While this may promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across the region, Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time given the expected temporary overlap of elevated winds/RH. Trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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