Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 28 22:46:01 UTC 2022.
MD 0094 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 Areas affected...portions of central Kentucky Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 282244Z - 290145Z SUMMARY...Brief instances of heavy snow and reduced visibility may accompany a band of snow showers moving southeast across central Kentucky. Brief instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates with quarter-mile visibility are the greatest concern. DISCUSSION...A relatively organized band of moderate to heavy snow has recently developed across northern Kentucky, with heavy snow and reduced visibility recently observed at KSDF. These snow showers will persist southeast amid a conditionally unstable low-level environment, where 22Z mesoanalysis depicts 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km in spots. For the next couple of hours, these low-topped snow bands will continue to benefit from the steep lapse rates, promoting strong wind gusts and heavy snow. Up to 1 inch/hr rates are possible in the core of the snow bands, where reduced visibility down to a quarter mile may occur. As low-level lapse rates weaken after 01-03Z, the heavier snow threat is expected to gradually diminish. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 01/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 38368579 37988485 37488424 36988424 36628483 36518553 36628602 36968621 37478626 37918629 38078627 38368579Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. A few thunderstorms have occurred over the Gulf Stream, well offshore of the East Coast. The threat should remain offshore through the period. ..Bentley.. 01/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022/ A deep upper trough will amplify and become negatively tilted tonight over the eastern states, resulting in rapid cyclogenesis off the Atlantic coast. While thunderstorms will be possible offshore tonight, organized deep convection is not anticipated over land areas.Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z The previous outlook remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest guidance. See below for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains states as an upper ridge across the Interior West slowly approaches the Rockies tomorrow/Saturday. An embedded mid-level impulse will traverse the Central Plains tomorrow, with surface lee-troughing across the Plains states ushering in dry surface air from the High Plains. By afternoon peak heating, widespread 15-20 percent RH is expected to overspread much of the central and southern Plains. Portions of central Nebraska will be overspread by stronger flow aloft given the passage of the embedded mid-level impulse, encouraging relatively widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly winds coinciding with the lower RH. When also considering the dry fuels across the central Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced for portions of central Nebraska into extreme northern Kansas. Weaker upper support across the southern Plains should keep surface winds below 15 mph on a widespread basis from southeast Colorado into western Texas eastward to central Oklahoma. However, the 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating overspreading dry fuels may support at least localized fire-spread concerns. Should guidance depict more widespread stronger winds across the southern Plains, Elevated highlights may be introduced. Lastly, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds overlapping 25-35 percent RH may accompany a post-cold frontal environment across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow afternoon. While such conditions would typically warrant Elevated highlights, relatively high fuel moisture/low forecast ERCs suggest that fuel receptiveness is mediocre, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more